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BRUINS 1
Joined: 1/28/05 Posts: 19,758
FCS NC Game
Posted Mon, Jan 06 6:31 pm (Edited Mon, Jan 06 6:31 pm)
NDSU has ball up 3, 4th & 2, on their own about 35-40 yard line, :10 left punting - Montana State elects to send 11, go for the block.

I don’t like that approach as blocking a punt is pretty low percentage. Montana State has the top returner in Taco. I would rather see a return attempt as he has returned some this year or fair catch with time on the clock for a Hail Mary.

Interesting scenario - thoughts?
Woochifer
Joined: 12/15/11 Posts: 9,124
What do the analytics say?
Posted Mon, Jan 06 7:39 pm (Edited Mon, Jan 06 7:58 pm)
In response to FCS NC Game (BRUINS 1)
This is either a riverboat gambler move, or something that the analytics determined was a higher (or comparable) probability. Around the 40 yard line, a good punter can pin the receiving team inside the 20 with only time for one Hail Mary play. Probability of that play from 80+ yards away from the end zone is close to nil. A decent return might get the ball closer to the 40 yard line. Still a long way to go, but a slightly better shot at the Hail Mary.

A punt block with an 11-man rush is also a low probability scenario. But, I would venture to guess that a blocked punt is a higher probability than a Hail Mary from 80+ yards out, or even a Hail Mary from close to midfield.

If a team gets the block from that part of the field, they're already close to field goal position with time for one play. Reasonable chance of at least a tie. Or they can go for the win with a Hail Mary from about 30 yards out. Not a high probability play, but well within reason because they can now use more of the playbook.

And with a punt block, the receiving team has that (small) chance of advancing into the end zone. The clock is not the enemy in that scenario, because it stops on the change of possession even if they're tackled short of the end zone. Advancing the ball on a punt block does not risk the clock running out like a Hail Mary pass caught short of the end zone would (assuming that the receiving team is out of time outs).

Interesting call.
BRUINS 1
Joined: 1/28/05 Posts: 19,758
Left out the returner
Posted Mon, Jan 06 9:25 pm (Edited Mon, Jan 06 9:32 pm)
In response to What do the analytics say? (Woochifer)
A very good one, he has return ability. Led the nation in returning. Took one to house against UC Davis this year, and has other times as well. I think I would try that, just so hard to block a punt, especially once you show 11 coming, punt team could just move punter back a little bit, just needs to get it off.

Really interesting scenario though.
Woochifer
Joined: 12/15/11 Posts: 9,124
Comparing the outcomes
Posted Tue, Jan 07 2:37 pm (Edited Tue, Jan 07 2:44 pm)
In response to Left out the returner (BRUINS 1)
Hard to say what happens on a punt when teams rush 11 -- does the frequency of blocks go up? And how does that compare to the odds of going to the house on a punt return? Would be interesting to hear how the coach decided to go all in on the punt block. He made a calculated risk that the punt block had more potential positive outcomes than setting up for the punt return.

It's not the conventional wisdom, but if successful, a punt block sets the team up better than a punt return that doesn't wind up in the end zone. For one thing, with 10 seconds left on the clock, a punt return could take up all 10 seconds if it gets returned to the red zone but falls short of the end zone. With the shorter field, a punt block recovery or even a scoop and return is more likely leave time on the clock to run another play.
BRUINS 1
Joined: 1/28/05 Posts: 19,758
Interesting that a punt block
Posted Tue, Jan 07 7:13 pm (Edited Tue, Jan 07 7:14 pm)
In response to Comparing the outcomes (Woochifer)
Is predictive of winning a game.
bergermeister
Joined: 8/27/15 Posts: 661
That was a fun game
Posted Tue, Jan 07 6:34 am
In response to FCS NC Game (BRUINS 1)
My dad went to ndsu and though he’s gone, one of his old friends always texts me when they’re playing.

Nice, refreshing, old school football with low/no salary student athletes.
BRUINS 1
Joined: 1/28/05 Posts: 19,758
Exactly
Posted Tue, Jan 07 6:44 am
In response to That was a fun game (bergermeister)
I watched a lot of UC Davis thus year, their best season, we’ve 11-2, lost in the quarterfinals. Runner-up to Montana State in the Big Sky, lost by 2 at home on a failed two point try.

Very enjoyable NC game. NDSU is dominant.
westwoodwon
Joined: 8/16/10 Posts: 6,901

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Enjoyed it for those same reasons
Posted Wed, Jan 08 11:00 am
In response to That was a fun game (bergermeister)
Guys who stayed and improved with the program, competing for their school and not their “brand”. Not as physically gifted as the D1 guys clearly, but great effort. That undersized Montana St QB was fun to watch - what a warrior!

The good ol’ days…